For lawmakers and staff
Raising Hawaiʻi’s minimum wage to a living wage
The key numbers, each linked to its primary source. “Our estimate” marks our own math. The method is below.
The key numbers
- $16 now, $18 in 2028
Hawaiʻi’s minimum wage rises to $18 on Jan 1, 2028.
Act 114, SLH 2022 · F0002
- ~$30 an hourour estimate
A living wage per working parent, family of four, 2027. $18 is about $12 an hour short.
United For ALICE 2026: $112,704 (2024) aged with DBEDT’s CPI forecast to ~$124,500 ÷ 2 parents ÷ 2,080 hrs · F0435, F0055, F0056
- 44% of households
couldn’t cover the basics in 2024 (below the ALICE line).
- $22.81 · ~$30 · $37.64
Three measures, per working parent. We use the middle one. State Self-Sufficiency (2024) · ALICE ($27.09 in 2024, ~$30 in 2027) · MIT (2026).
DBEDT Self-Sufficiency 2024 ($94,889 ÷ 4,160 hrs; 2 adults, preschooler, school-age) · MIT Living Wage · F0122, F0094, F0060
- ~$3.95 billion a yearour estimate
in added pay from $18 to $30, for about 335,000 jobs (53% of Hawaiʻi jobs). Range $3.67–5.16 billion.
Method below · built on BLS OEWS, May 2025 · F1382
- More than 2½ timesour estimate
That added pay is more than 2½ times today’s $1.53 billion of aid and tax breaks (SNAP, EITC, refunded child credit, state credits, and the 2024 tax cut for these jobs).
Statewide program totals, mixed years · F1400, F0434
- 81% are 25 or older
of Hawaiʻi workers earning $22 an hour or less (2023).
DBEDT, Minimum Wage in Hawaiʻi 2025 Update, Table E-1 · F0295
- Wage +58%, prices +21%our calc
Jan 2022 to Sep 2026, $10.10 to $16. U.S. prices +20% over the same months.
BLS CPI-U Urban Hawaiʻi · U.S. CPI-U · F1226, F1231
- 2.8% vs 4.2%
Unemployment, Sep 2026, Hawaiʻi vs U.S. In Sep 2022 it was 3.3% vs 3.5%.
BLS LAUS Hawaiʻi · BLS U.S. rate · F0809, F0317
- Kept paceour calc
Since the raises began, Hawaiʻi kept pace. Real GDP per person +6.9% (U.S. +7.0%), 2022 to mid-2026. Jobs at workplaces under 50 staff +3.0% (U.S. +3.2%), Mar 2022 to Mar 2026. The U.S. was slightly ahead on both.
What it costs employers
About $4.3 billion a year
That’s the ~$3.95 billion in added pay plus about 8% in employer payroll taxes ($3.95B × 1.08 = $4.27B). Employer Social Security and Medicare alone are 7.65%. It does not count ripple raises for people already paid a little above the new floor, or workers’ comp, unemployment insurance, TDI or health coverage costs. So the true cost is somewhat higher. We’d rather say so first.
Our estimate · F1382, F0517 · IRS Topic 751
The state’s own review found prior minimum wage increases had little impact on employment outcomes
while generally raising income and wages.
DBEDT, The Minimum Wage in Hawaiʻi, 2025 Update (Aug 2025), Executive Summary, p. iii. The same report found Honolulu food-service jobs slightly fell after the pandemic, and says it’s unclear how much was the wage vs. tourism’s recovery and the Maui fires.
How we estimate
- Living wage (~$30). United For ALICE’s 2024 survival budget for two adults, an infant and a preschooler ($112,704), carried to 2027 with DBEDT’s Honolulu CPI forecast (~$124,500), split across two full-time earners (2,080 hours each).
- Added pay ($3.95B). BLS OEWS May 2025 wages by occupation, aged 7% to 2027. Every job paid under the new floor is raised to it. 1,500 paid hours per job a year. Low end: wages aged 10.5%. High end: 1,700 hours.
- What we leave out. Ripple raises, changes in hours or jobs, and price changes. Gross pay only.
- Trends. We say “since the raises began”. These numbers show what changed alongside the raises, not what caused it.
Questions you’ll hear
- “$30 is above the median wage.”
Hawaiʻi’s median was $27.08 in May 2025, about $29 aged to 2027 (our calc). $30 measures what families need. It isn’t a bill number. How fast to get there is the Legislature’s call.
BLS OEWS · F0340
- “That’s a $4 billion cost to small business.”
We state the employer cost ourselves: about $4.3 billion with payroll taxes, before ripple raises. It goes to about 335,000 jobs.
F1382, F0517
- “The job gains are just the COVID rebound.”
We don’t claim the raises caused job growth. DBEDT’s own review found prior raises had little impact on employment, and noted the food-service dip after the pandemic.
DBEDT 2025 Update, p. iii
- “Most of these workers aren’t breadwinners.”
DBEDT finds 63% of workers at $22 or less live in families earning $100,000 or more. But a family of four needs $112,704 just to cover the basics (2024). Many homes get by with several earners. And 81% of these workers are 25 or older.
F0293, F0435, F0295
- “You picked the highest measure.”
We picked the middle one. The state’s Self-Sufficiency Standard is lower ($22.81 per earner, 2024); MIT is higher ($37.64, 2026).
F0122, F0060
- “Your price chart starts after a wage freeze.”
Start in Jan 2018 instead, when $10.10 began. It’s worth $13.44 in Sep 2026 dollars, so prices rose about 33% while the wage rose 58%.
BLS CPI-U · F1170 (our calc)
- “Low unemployment just means people are leaving.”
Hawaiʻi lost a net 54,537 residents to other states in the five years to July 2025. That’s why we show jobs and GDP per person too, and why we never say the raises caused the low rate.
Census Vintage 2025 · F1186
- “Won’t families lose benefits?”
Aid phases out as pay rises, so a small raise can cost some families benefits (SNAP stops all at once above 200% of the poverty line). At a living wage, families come out well ahead: two parents with an infant and a preschooler gain about $32,000 a year at $30 even after losing aid, before taxes (our calc, Research Bank F1435).
Questions or a source you can’t open? info@livingwagehawaii.com. F-numbers are entries in our public research bank. Live links at livingwagehawaii.com/lawmakers.html